NBA Fast Break Run 1 | Day 3

Fast BreakStandardNBA TopShotNBARun 12024-2025 NBA Season
Written By Witty

Pick 5 Players who will combine for 35 Field Goals Made to earn your win.

Overview:

Rising tides lifts all boats. We are only two days into Fast Break and you can already see the elevating values on top tier players. Collectors who planned ahead and proactively picked up moments during the offseason were able to find some steals. For example, Wemby’s least expensive rare sold for $520 on August 20th. Today, it has a low ask of $999 (92% increase). Cam Thomas had a monster day and appears to be the star player on the Brooklyn Nets. His rare sold for $25 on August 25th and today it has a low ask of $65 (160% increase) (no legendary moment…yet). As the season progresses and more moments are released, we will likely see a reduction in values, so incremental gains in new collectors and Fast Break participants will be the key to a successful 2024-2025 Season.

Naturally, high-end rewards for Fast Break is a required lever to broad interest beyond the existing population of collectors. But it cannot be the only lever as the value proposition of digital collectibles is the collectibility. As more TopShot announcements are released, it will be worth watching to see whether there is more exciting news beyond just Fast Break. But that doesn’t negate the importance and relevance of Fast Break and it’ll be interesting to see whether the number of participants steadily rises, spikes significantly, or plateaus throughout the season which will be a leading indicator of the trajectory of TopShot this year and beyond.

As for this Fast Break run, 646 lineups earned a win on Day 2 and only 313 participants have two wins. The five (5) most heavily used players (Booker 56%, Mitchell 49%, Maxey 38%, Giannis 33%, Morant 31%) all fell short of the 26.0 average points needed. Considering the frequency of usage, Devin Booker was likely the primary anchor on most lineups yesterday. If you’re part of the 88% who did not earn the win, brush it off and let’s get a win today.

Today’s Objective(s):

Fast Break Day 3 requires five (5) players who will make 35 or more Field Goals, which means your lineup will need an average of 7.0 FGM per player. Although only eight (8) teams are in action, we are early enough in the cycle where you’ll have plenty of options. If, however, you’re not looking ahead to the rest of the series, you may run into some challenging days ahead. As there is only one objective today and with the number of high volume shooters in the queue, you should not have any difficulty reaching the required threshold. Be sure to have a few reliable bucket getters and sprinkle in someone further down the projections list to save your superstars (unless you have rares and legendaries to give you some flexibility).

  • Scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum

Upcoming Objective(s):

  • Tomorrow, there will be twenty (20) teams in action and the objective will require 15 three pointers & 30 rebounds

  • Remaining objectives (after today):

    • 2x: PTS, 3PM, AST, FTM, REB

    • 1x: PIP, STL, OREB, AST-TO, BLK, FGM

Considerations:

  • Least number of games remaining (4): Miami, New York & Philadelphia

  • Most number of games remaining (6): Eight teams play in 6 of the remaining 9 games this run

  • Least number of teams in action (8): Day 2, 8 & 10 (least options; less flexibility)

  • Most number of teams in action (22): Day 7 & 9 (most options; high flexibility)

  • Second most number of teams in action (20): Day 2, 4, 5, 12 (more options; high flexibility)

Statistical Approach:

Top players in projected Field Goals Made according to Rotowire, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, season projections, and ranks amongst peers for each objective. Last 10 and season averages will be incorporated as the season progresses. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull and/or no moments available.

Rewards:

  • Daily Reward: Top 50 each day will receive a pack

  • Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, or 9 wins and each tier earns you a pack

  • Run Reward: Place in the top 500 overall

    • Rank 1: Two (2) court side seats to an NBA game

    • Rank 2-500: Spendable credit at varying values

Additional Resources:

The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire, 2024.

Projected Field Goals Made

NBA Fast Break Grid

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Witty
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NBA Fast Break Run 1 | Day 4
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NBA Fast Break Run 1 | Day 2