NBA Fast Break Run 3 | Day 7

Fast BreakStandardNBA TopShotNBA2024-2025 NBA SeasonRun 3
Written By Witty

Pick 5 Players who will combine for 130 Points Scored to earn your win.

Overview:

We have reached the midway point of this run and have six more days to go. There have been over 7,500 participants and we’ll likely reach 8,000+ for the third straight run. We have not yet reached the 10K mark, but that’ll be a meaningful milestone to gauge growth and retention. As we have seen, Fast Break will need to continue to evolve through positive iterations in order to retain existing players while bringing in new collectors. Keep in mind the gamification of TopShot is less than a year old, so there is plenty of opportunity for relevant adjustments. One significant lever is the ongoing partnership with the NBA who recently promoted the free NBA TopShot x NBA ID Pack, which you can still claim if you have not done so already.

Although we did not see the same level of success as Day 5 (85%+ winners), Day 6 turned out to be a fruitful day for the majority with over 75% earning a win. Of the top five players used yesterday, Cade Cunningham would have been the Fast Break Stud of the Day who was used in 69% of lineups and contributed 10 Assists (40% of the total goal) and 26 Field Goal Attempts (104% of the total goal), but Franz Wagner one upped him in the night cap against the Lakers with one more assist and the game winning step-back three-pointer (included in 42% of lineups). On the other end of the spectrum, Austin Reaves earned the infamous title of Fast Break Dud of the Day as he contributed a paltry 3 Assists and 12 Field Goals Attempted and dragged down 36% of lineups. As that is a relatively low percentage of total lineups (considering the 107 different players used), you may have your own “Dud” in your lineup - especially if you didn’t achieve yesterday’s objective.

Midway through this run, we still have over 250 participants who remain perfect and continue to be in the chase for the NBA Cup Final tickets in Last Vegas on December 17th, which includes airfare and accommodations. Many others are aiming for the 9-win pack and/or a top 200 finish. Today’s objective is shaping up to be a major deterrent to both end of run goals based on projections. Let’s dive into the specifics.

Note: At 3:00PM ET | 7:00PM UTC, 2,544 NBA Cup Packs (mixed set) will be available for $29, which will contain 5 moments with a guaranteed Rare and a 2.91% chance at a Legendary.

Today’s Objective(s):

Fast Break Day 7 requires five (5) players who will score 130 or more Points, which means your lineup will need an average of 26.0 PTS per player. There is only one objective today, so it’ll be straightforward but not necessarily easy. On nights like this, a single player has the capability of sinking your lineup so consider matchups, injuries, minute caps, and how they’ve looked over the past 10 games. So long as you have average nights from typical scorers and you avoid the duds, you’ll position yourself well for a win.

You’ll notice a lighter than usual list below. There are only two (2) players in action today who are projected to score over 30 points and/or have done so over the past 10 games - Giannis & De’Aaron Fox. Beyond that there are only six (6) who are projected to score over 26 and/or have done so over the past 10 games (see table). On any given night, some players have the ability to have a massive game but it’s going to be a turbulent one without a career-type night from someone in your lineup.

  • Scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum

  • Top Five (5) Players in Lineups: D. Fox (70%), J. Tatum (49%), D. Lillard (44%), G. Antetokounmpo (41%), J. Brown (37%)

Upcoming Objective(s):

  • Tomorrow, 12 three pointers & 45 rebounds will be the objectives and 14 teams are in action

  • Objectives after Today:

    • 2x: 3PM

    • 1x: FTM, BLK, STL, AST-TO, REB, AST, PTS

Considerations:

  • Teams with the most number of games remaining (4): 11 Teams

  • Teams with the least number of games remaining (2): Cleveland, Oklahoma City, & Phoenix

  • No team is playing the tail end of a back-to-back

  • Boston & Miami are the only two teams not playing on Day 12

  • Day 12 have 20 or more teams in action

  • Day 11 is the always volatile and difficult to predict Assists minus Turnovers objective

  • Four of the remaining five days (after today) have two objectives

Statistical Approach:

Top players in projected Points Scored according to Rotowire & NBA.com, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.

Rewards:

  • Daily Reward: Top 50 each day will receive a Fast Break Rookie Debut pack

  • Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, or 9 wins and each tier earns you a pack

    • 3 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack

    • 6 wins: Three (3) Grail Seeker packs

    • 9 wins: Fast Break pack

  • Run Reward: Place in the top 200 overall

    • Rank 1: Two (2) tickets to the NBA Cup Finals in Las Vegas including airfare and hotel

    • Rank 2-200: Spendable credit at varying values

Additional Resources:

Tome Society’s Fast Break Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):

Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as Tome Society participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.

The win streak continues! That’s four wins out of six days and we still have a chance at that top reward. Day 7 had a big upgrade as Giannis hadn’t been used yet, but there are no guarantees. We go for five wins today.

The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire & NBA.com, 2024.

Projected Points Scored

Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+

NBA Fast Break Grid

Support us by:

  • Subscribing to our Newsletter to receive emails with Fast Break analysis

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Aren’t able to pay a monthly fee? Currently, there is a promotion available for a one (1) month subscription in exchange for any one (1) WNBA or NBA Rare moment sent to TS: TomeSociety. This promotion ends on November 30, 2024.

Witty
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NBA Fast Break Run 3 | Day 6