NBA Fast Break Run 3 | Day 5
Pick 5 Players who will combine for 45 Points in the Paint and 10 Offensive Rebounds to earn your win.
Overview:
We are four days into Fast Break Run 3 and there are already over 7,000 participants. Of the 360 individuals who were perfect after three days, we are down to 270 who are perfect which is surprising considering 60% of participants earned a win yesterday. Some of the blame may very well go to the Fast Break Dud of the Day, LaMelo Ball who was used in over 40% of lineups but only delivered 3 field goals - his lowest output of the season (previous low was 6 field goals on November 4th). The two overachievers of the day (and likely carried a few lineups) were Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Williams who chipped in 13 field goals apiece.
Today, we have our first two objective day since November 16th, but it should be winnable considering multiple players can deliver in both categories at a high clip. With eight game days remaining including today, you likely still have Joker on your bench as he was unavailable the past two games. Check the Fast Break Grid to see when he plays next, the objectives for the day, and whether he is a better option than what you’ve already set. With other All-Star caliber players making their way back from injuries, you may have more flexibility on the back-end of this run than you typically have.
Keep in mind Top Shot uses season averages exclusively, which is a decent starting point, but daily projections factor in matchups, minutes available, recent performance, etc. and a player’s last 10 game stats identify trends (hot & cold streaks). It is inevitable you’ll have the Fast Break Dud of the Day in your lineup at some point, but utilizing the information available to you so you can make the most informed decision possible will lead to success more times than not. With that said, let’s dive into today’s projections.
Today’s Objective(s):
Fast Break Day 5 requires five (5) players who will score 45 or more Points in the Paint and gather 10 or more Offensive Rebounds, which means your lineup will need an average of 9.0 PIP & 2.0 OREB per player. Today has two objectives that are correlated for certain arch-types, but offensive rebounds will be the more difficult between the two.
Four players are all projected to reach the required both thresholds (and then some) and have achieved these targets over their past 10 games are Giannis, Sengun, Zubac and KAT. Unsurprisingly, these four are also the top five most utilized in today’s lineups with Vooch rounding out the top five. Depending on whether you choose players based on their ability to contribute to both objectives or moneyball it and focus on either objective specifically, you have plenty of options to choose from.
Little of Both: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Alperen Sengun, Ivica Zubac, Karl-Anthony Towns
Paint by Numbers: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alperen Sengun, Ivica Zubac, Franz Wagner, Pascal Siakam, Jalen Brunson, Nikola Vucevic, Jalen Williams
Offensive Glass Crashers: Clint Capela, Ivica Zubac, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns, Alperen Sengun, Jusuf Nurkic, Goga Bitadze
Top Five (5) Players in Lineups: I. Zubac (79%), A. Sengun (67%), G. Antetokounmpo (64%), N. Vucevic (54%), K. Towns (49%)
Upcoming Objective(s):
Tomorrow, 25 assists & 25 field goals attempted will be the objectives and only 8 teams are in action
Objectives after Today:
2x: AST, PTS, 3PM
1x: FGA, FTM, BLK, STL, AST-TO, REB
Considerations:
Teams with the most number of games remaining (5): Chicago, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, Orlando, & Portland
Teams with the least number of games remaining (3): Boston, Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Miami, & Phoenix
Cleveland, Memphis, New Orleans, & Oklahoma City are playing the tail end of a back-to-back
Day 6 has the least number of teams in action (8)
Day 12 have 20 or more teams in action
Day 11 is the always volatile and difficult to predict Assists minus Turnovers objective
Five of the remaining seven days have two objectives
Statistical Approach:
Top players in projected Points in the Paint & Offensive Rebounds according to Rotowire, which is available in the table(s) below. Overall rank is based on daily projections, last 10 games, and rest of season projections, which stack ranked amongst peers for each objective. When there is a single objective, the three data points are still used to stack rank the players vs. ranking solely on projections. For tome+ subscribers, projected rest-of-season stats are available in the provided data file. Omission of certain players would be based on injuries at the time of data pull.
Rewards:
Daily Reward: Top 50 each day will receive a Fast Break Rookie Debut pack
Milestone Reward: Reach 3, 6, or 9 wins and each tier earns you a pack
3 wins: One (1) Grail Seeker pack
6 wins: Three (3) Grail Seeker packs
9 wins: Fast Break pack
Run Reward: Place in the top 200 overall
Rank 1: Two (2) tickets to the NBA Cup Finals in Las Vegas including airfare and hotel
Rank 2-200: Spendable credit at varying values
Additional Resources:
Flowty.io - find/rent moments for your Fast Break roster
Fast Break Lobby - see all expired and open runs
OwnTheMoment Fast Break Planner - connect your collection & map out your lineups
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Cheat Sheet - plan your series using data for each day & objective
Tome+ Exclusive: Witty’s Player Targets Guide - players organized by Fast Break utility & rare/legendary prices (as of 11/12/2024)
Tome Society’s Fast Break Line-Up (Commons Only Challenge):
Many Fast Break participants do not have an extensive collection of rare or legendary moments, so they are limited to single use commons. Even with a limited lineup, participants have found a way to reach the maximum rewards. Follow along as Tome Society participates in Fast Break without using any player more than once - in both our success and failures.
That makes it two wins in four tries thanks to a big day from Donovan Mitchell & Jalen Williams. The icing on the cake was placing in the top 50 for a daily reward. Let’s go for the 3-win pack and keep the momentum going.
The top players for today’s Fast Break objective(s). Source: Rotowire, 2024.
Projected Points in the Paint
Interested in daily sortable and filterable data tables with all players included (beyond the top 10)? Join Tome+
Projected Offensive Rebounds
Projected PIP & OREB
NBA Fast Break Grid
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